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Asian Economic and Financial Review
Publish by: Production and Hosting by Pak Publishing Group on behalf of Asian Economic and Social Socie
Online ISSN: 2222-6737
Print ISSN: 2305-2147
Online ISSN: 2222-6737
Print ISSN: 2305-2147
Print ISSN: 2305-2147
Total Citation: 1219
Exports and Nigerian’s Economic Growth: a Co-Integration Analysis
Udude Celina C, Okulegu Bethran Enyim
This research work employed the use of cointegration analysis in the study of export and economic growth in Nigeria. It was embarked on, in order to determine whether there is bi-directional relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria. More so, it tries to evaluate significant impact of exports on the economic growth in Nigeria. On the application of advanced econometric techniques like Augumented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Mechanism, the following information surfaced: - There existed a long-run relationship with economic growth and export in Nigeria. None of the variables were stationary at zero level. This means they all have unit roots. Having integrated the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium, Imports (IMP) and Exchange Rate were positively correlated with GDP while Exports (EXC) was negatively related with GDP. The short-run dynamics adjusts to the long-run equilibrium at the rate of 0.866% per annum. In the bid to achieve economic growth, it was recommended that there should be diversification of export commodities, infrastructure development, and maintenance of stable exchange rate and operationalization of Export Processing Zones.
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Factors Affecting the Nominal Exchange Rate of Pakistan: An Econometric Investigation (1982-2008)
Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak, Muhammad Tariq, Jangraiz Khan
Which macroeconomic factors determine the nominal exchange rate of Pak-rupee against US dollar during the period 1982-2008? This issue has been investigated in this paper by using Ordinary Least Squares and Johansen???s Cointegration techniques. The results show that both monetary and real factors i.e. money supply, trade balance, foreign exchange reserves, inflation and interest rate have long run relationship with the exchange rate of Pak-rupee. However, the granger causality test results show that the relationship between most of the macroeconomic variables and nominal exchange rate bi-directional.
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The Technical Efficiency of Nigerian Banks
Frances N. Obafemi
This study provides an insight into the technical efficiency of Nigerian banks. The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach was employed to derive the efficiency scores of the various banks. A total of 67 banks, made up of commercial and merchant banks were used for the periods 1984/1985, 1994/1995, 1999/2000, and 2003/2004. This enabled us to investigate the efficiency of these banks pre- and- post liberalization. However, the periods were before the consolidation exercise of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) headed by both Soludo and Sanusi. This enabled us compare the results with the outcome of those consolidation exercises. The result shows that on the average Nigerian banks were not efficient within the periods of study. However, it showed that liberalization improved the efficiency of banks in Nigeria, though the improvement did not last as some of the banks started sliding in efficiency with continued liberalization. This tends to support the consolidation exercises which were actions taken along with the liberalization exercise to save the banks. Furthermore, the study shows that some of the banks that collapsed during the 2006 consolidation exercise had their efficiencies continuously on the decline. Same with some of the banks that were declared problematic by Sanusi. It also showed that privately owned banks were found to be more efficient than publicly owned banks within the period of study. This suggests that continued privatization should be pursued in the banking industry.
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Verifying the Effects of Risk Variables on Return Volatility of Sector Price Indices in the Nigeria Stock Exchange
Okoli, Margaret Nnenna
The aim of this paper is to determine whether risk variables in particular interest rate and exchange rate play any important role in predicting sector price indices in the stock market. The stock market indices used include All-share index, banking index, insurance index, food and beverage index and oil and gas index .Index return and volatility is estimated using GARCH (1, 1).The findings revealed that exchange rate has a high negative influence on All-share index (ASI) and food and beverage index (FBI), while interest rate has a high significant negative impact on Oil and Gas Index (OGI). The variance of these indices also varies overtime. In other words, these indices exhibit volatility clustering. Worthy of note is that exchange rate (EXR) affects the volatility of the Food /Beverage index. It therefore implied that investors should watch this trend in return volatility changes before choosing their portfolio of investment for better risk management.
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Return-Volatility Interactions in the Nigerian Stock Market
MARGARET N. OKOLI
The study employed the GARCH (1, 1) and VAR models to ascertain the relationship between volatilities in the monetary policy variables and volatilities in the stock market returns in Nigeria between 1980 and 2010.The study showed that only exchange rate policy variable have an influence on the stock market volatility with a negative coefficient but statistically significant indicating that higher volatility in the exchange rate dampens stock market activities. This means that an increase in exchange volatility will lead to a fall in stock market volatility. Additionally, result showed that M1granger causes very significantly M2 and vice versa. Implicitly, it shows that there is ???bi-directional causality??? or a ???bi-directional feedback??? between M1 andM2.What this implies is that stabilizing interest rate will reduce the volatility in the stock market. The study also observed that there is no effect of international factor and influence on the stock market returns implying that international volatilities is not transmitted across national stock markets in Nigeria. Finally, there is the presence of volatility shocks. The study therefore suggested that government policy should focus on exchange rate to stabilize the stock market. Investors are also advised to consider the nature of volatility in exchange rate before making investment decisions.
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The Causal Link between Government Expenditure and Government Revenue in Ghana
Richard Doh-Nani, Dadson Awunyo-Vitor
The study aimed at determining the causal link between government expenditure and government revenue of Ghana over the period 1960 to 2007. Four hypotheses were tested namely: tax-spend hypothesis, spend-tax hypothesis, fiscal synchronization hypothesis and institutional separation hypothesis. The data was obtained from World Bank development indicators??? and the state of the Ghanaian economy. The study employed Granger causality test, augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) tests to examine the causal link between government expenditure and revenue of Ghana. The result shows that there is bi-directional causality such that both government expenditure and government revenue of Ghana have temporal precedence over each other. This means that changes in government revenue precede changes in government expenditure. In order to ensure that expenditure do not move too far away from revenue, the tax net of Ghana should be expanded to capture all ???taxable??? individuals and firms to increase government revenue.
- Bank of Ghana (2007). Bank of Ghana Monetary Policy Report. Vol. 1, No. 6/2007. Accra, Bank of Ghana Research Department
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Poverty and Sustainable Socio-Economic Development in Africa: The Nigerian Experience
Igbokwe-Ibeto Chinyeaka Justine, Akhakpe Ighodalo, Oteh Chukwuemeka Okpo
There has been a growing incidence of poverty in sub-Saharan Africa over the last two decades. Poverty is a multidimensional social phenomenon that can be analytically divided into two main perspectives: human poverty which is the lack of human capabilities and income poverty, which is the lack of income necessary to satisfy basic need e.g. poor life expectancy, poor maternal health, illiteracy, poor nutritional levels, poor access to safe drinking water and perceptions of well-being. The paper examines several initiatives focused on poverty eradication that Nigeria have adopted through national actions to fight both human and income poverty. In analysizing the issues raised, we anchored the paper on an eclectic approach of radical, Marxist model of political economy and the social exclusion theories. The study established among others, that a lot of effort has been made in poverty reduction through poverty alleviation programs in Nigeria. However, it is of knowledge that in spite of the previous efforts of various governments to alleviate poverty in Nigeria and the efforts of the current government to effect same, nothing much had changed in the living conditions and standards of the people. Poverty is still growing at an alarming rate. The challenges of poverty alleviation strategies in the Nigerian situation were articulated in the context of sustainable socio-economic development and the paper concludes that poverty alleviation in contemporary Nigeria require both socio-economic policies geared towards sustainable development. However, to enhance the human capital of the poor in particular, priorities for educational reforms should be in the areas of basic education, vocational training, water and sanitation, health care delivery, agriculture and housing for all. It is the position of this paper that until African leaders in general and Nigeria in particular begin to think ???We??? and not ???I???, the fight against poverty that could engender sustainable socio-economic development will for long remain a mirage.
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Earnings Management, Board Independence And Audit Fees Considering The Firm’s Profitability Level
Javad Moradi, Hashem Valipour, Zahra Pahlavan
This study investigates the relation between earnings management, board independence and audit fees considering the firm’s profitability level. Two main hypotheses have been designed by theoretical framework, and have been tested on 57 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2003 to 2009. The statistical analysis had been done by multi-variable regression analysis and one-way ANOVA analysis, too. The findings show that there is a meaningful and positive relation between earnings management and audit fees. Also, there is a meaningful and negative relation between board independence and audit fees. The results suggest that the higher the level of profitability, the higher the audit fees.
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Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics among the Sectoral Stock Indices: Evidence from Turkey
Gulin Vardar, Gokce Tunc, Berna Aydogan
This paper investigates the short-run and long-run dynamics among the major sectoral stock indices of the Istanbul Stock Exchange over the period 1997-2011. Long-run relationship among these indices is analyzed by using both conventional Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration tests, causal relationship through Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Likewise, variance decomposition analysis is employed to partition the variance of the forecast error of one sector index into proportions attributable to shocks in each sector index in the system including its own. The findings suggest that all sectors show consistent and strong evidence of a long-run relationship, the short-term causal relationships between the sector indices are considerably limited and, where they exist, especially unidirectional. The variance decomposition analysis confirms that even though a high percentage of error variance is accounted for by the innovations in the same index, innovations in the variance of returns in the Banking sector are able to explain, on average, 63% innovations in the variance of the Chemistry, Petrol and Plastic, 57% of the Basic Metal and 79% of the Holding and Investment sector returns. These results indicate that the Banking sector is the most influential sector in the ISE.
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Impact of Heavy Taxation on Israel During Solomonic Era: Implications for Nigerian Tax System
Theodore U. Dickson, Appolos N. Nwaobia
Over time, the tax systems have been a major source of revenue generation for several governments. Its history dates back to Bible times. Tax therefore becomes the civic responsibility of individuals and corporate organizations with the understanding that its proceeds will enhance governmental projects for the benefit of the society. However, history has shown that the implementation of tax policies by different governments have at different times resulted in double or multiple taxation of the citizens. Hidden under the garb of ???development??? and ???improvement??? of the wellbeing of the society, these administrators exploit the people and at the end poverty is further entrenched. The paper attempted a critical look at tax policies and its administration in ancient Israel during the Solomonic Era ??? a time when the Bible said Israel ???prospered???, and its impact on the populace. The implications of such impact on the Nigerian tax systems were drawn in an attempt to avert extreme effects like dissension. We discovered that the Solomonic Era was characterized by heavy taxation. Beyond the multiplicity of direct tax, thousands of Israelites were drawn into unpaid labor force. The study noted the replication of Solomonic tax system in Nigeria and recommended an urgent reform in the Nigeria???s tax administration as well as value re-orientation aimed at curtailing corrupt bureaucracy.
- Ancient Tax Collector. http://www.bible-history.com
- Anderson, Bernhard et. al (2007) Understanding the Old Testament. Pearson Prentice Hall. New Jersey.
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- Federal Government of Nigeria (1998) “Taxes and Levies (Approved list for collection) Act”. Government Press. Lagos.
- Fiti, Adeole and Rahman, Ipaye (2007) “Multiple Taxation: The Real Problems and Possible Solutions”. NECA Annual Report and Accounts.
- Gottwald, Norman K. (1986) The Hebrew Bible: A Socio-Literary Application. Fortress Press. New York.
- Hoffman, Yair (2012) “King Solomon and His Kingdom”. www.myjewishlearning.com
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- Ihendinihu, J. U. (2008) “Impact Assessment of Emerging Tax Issues in the Underground Economy in Nigeria”. The Nigerian Journal of Financial Research, Vol.6, No.1, pp.119 – 140
- Ipaye, A. (2002) “Overview of the tax environment: Issues and challenges”. CITN Nigerian tax Guide & Statutes. The Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria. Lagos.
- Izedonmi, Famous (No Date) “Eliminating Multiple Taxation in the Capital Market: the Capital Market Perspective”. University of Benin. Benin City.
- Keho, Y.(2012), “Tax Structure and Economic Growth in Cote d?Ivoire: Are some taxes better than others?” Asian Economic and Financial Review, Vol.1, No.4, pp.226 – 235.
- Nzotta, S.M. (2007) “Tax evasion Problems in Nigeria: A Critique”. The Nigerian Accountant, Vol.40, No.2, pp. 40- 43.
- Obri, Francis O. (2006) “Causes and Factors that lead to the Creation of Informal Sector in Developing Economies”. Federal Inland Revenue Service, Nigeria. www.firs.gov.ng
- Ohuabunwa, S. I. (2008) “Multiplicity of Taxes and the Cost of Doing Business”. A Paper Delivered at the 38th Annual Accountant?s Conference by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), p.2.
- Pope, Charles N. (2004) “The Domain of Man”. www.domainofman.com
- Quartz Hill School of Theology (2012) “Solomon” www.theology.edu
- Schultz, Samuel J. and Smith, Gary V. (2001) Exploring the Old Testament. Oasis International Ltd Illinois.
- Sunday Tribune (2011) “Nigeria?s Textile Industries: When will they resurrect?” http://www.tribune.com
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Exploring the Determinant Factors of Bank???s Net Earnings
Okoli Margaret Nnenna
The paper examines the determinants of bank net earnings defined as profit after tax and deductibles in selected banks in Nigeria. Data used were extracted from balance sheets and income statement accounts and analyzed with the Ordinary Least square regression model. The results confirmed that customer???s deposits and reserves all impacted positively on the net earnings but only one bank???s customers deposit was statistically significant. Also the reserves of two banks were significant. Other variables like loan and advances was negatively related to net earnings contrary to a prior expectation but one bank???s loan and advances was statistically significant. Lastly, bad and doubtful debt has the negative expected sign with two banks being statistically significant. Overall the fit of the model was good. It was therefore recommended that banks should be prudent in advancing loans to their customers.
- Athanasoglou, P.P., Brissimis, S.N., and Delis M.D. (2007) “Bank Specific, Industry Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of bank profitability”, Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money Vol.18, No.2, pp.121-136.
- De Young, R. and Rice, T. (2004) “Non-interest income and Financial performance at US commercial Banks”, Review Vol.39, No.1, pp.101-127.
- Dermiguc Kunt, A; Huizinga, H. (1999) “Determinants of Commercial bank interest margins and profitability: Some International Evidence,” World Bank Economic Review Vol.13, No.2, pp.379-408.
- Enendu, C.I(2003) “Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins in a liberalized Financial System: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria (1989-2000)”, Central bank of Nigeria Economic and Financial Review Vol.41, No.1, March 2003.
- Golin J., (2001) The Bank Credit Analysis Handbook: A guide For Analysts, Bankers and Investors, New York: Jed Wiley and Sons.
- Hancock, R.S. (1964) Consumer and commercial credit Management 2nd edition, USA, Library Congress. Hefferman, S. and Fu, M. (2008) “The Determinants of Bank- Performance in China”, Ema Working Paper Series No. 032008.
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- Neely, M.C. and Wheelock, D.C. (1997) “Why does bank performance differ across states? Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis”, Issue: March/April, pp.27-33.
- Seballos, L.D. and J.B.Thomas (1990) “Understanding causes of commercial failures in the 1980s”, Economic commentary, Federal Reserve Board of Cleveland, September.
- Stiroh, K.J. and Rumble, A. (2006) “The dark side of diversification: Financial holding Companies,” Journal of Banking and Finance Vol. 30, No.8, pp.2131-2161.
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Debt and Debt Volatility: Effect on Economic Growth in Nigeria
James Sunday Kehinde
Today the major economic problem of the developing nation is the effect and volatility of debt on the real development of the economy. Debt volume continues to increase while the GDP either remain constant or increase at a reduced marginal rate. The ordinary least square regression analysis and the general autoregressional conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) were used. The study attempts to estimate the effect and volatility of debt on the GDP. Secondary data was used and the E-view package adopted in the study. The study revealed that only lag in GDP affect the GDP volume, while debt and volatility in debt does not affect the GDP. There is no ARCH effect of debt on GDP. It was recommended that debt management regime should be refocused to ensure that debt repayment is exogenously determined. Moreover, future debt should be attached to a specific capital development program to ensure the growth in the economy.
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Assessing Determinants of Macroeconomic Policy on Real Convergence and Growth: A Comparative Study of the Eurozone and ASEAN
ZaenalMutaqin, Masaru Ichihashi
This study mainly examines the role of macroeconomic policy variables associated with Maastricht Convergence Criteria (MC), using various approaches to analyze comparatively differences in growth and convergence in income, productivity, and unemployment between a developed, economically integrated area (Eurozone) and a developing one (ASEAN), a decade before and after the euro was introduced. The most interesting issue is whether macroeconomic policy coordination in the Eurozone has had an influence and improves the region???s economic performance, compared to a region that does not have such a policy. Based on estimations, convergence was found to be conditional rather than unconditional, except with respect to unemployment and productivity in the Eurozone. Imposing macroeconomic policy variables associated with MC on convergence and growth in the Eurozone and ASEAN makes it possible to determine any significant influence. Although results were mixed in different estimations, in all equations, joint variables imply that those variables should not be ignored in promoting convergence and growth in both regions. Generally, the Eurozone has higher real per-capita GDP, productivity, and unemployment, and more stable growth in GDP and productivity, but ASEAN performed better in terms of growth of income and productivity, and in low unemployment levels, as suggested also by difference-in-difference and decomposition analysis.
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Fundamental Value and Price Divergence: Evidence from Tehran’s Stock Exchange
Lida Mahmoudi, Javad Moradi
This paper investigates the information content of some accounting variables and degree of their association with risk and return by residual income model in Tehran stock exchange (TSE). In order to determine risk factors, we use Fama and French (1992) three-factor Model. The first contribution is that the fundamental value based on accounting figures, is highly correlated with stock prices, that is, the accounting numbers as residual income and book value and the fundamental value based on them, are important factors determining the market value of stocks. Our results indicate that beta coefficient cannot explain price differentials, and price differentials are not related to abnormal return. We further document that relative information content of price differentials and Systematic Risk are different. Finally, we find that price differentials with systematic risk do not contain incremental information content to explain returns in TSE.
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A Co-integration Analysis of the Dominican Republic’s Aggregate Import Demand Function under a Floating Exchange Rate Regime
This paper presents an empirical examination of the responsiveness of aggregate imports to variations in relative prices and domestic economic activity in the Dominican Republic under a floating exchange rate regime implemented in 1985. Using the ???bounds??? testing approach to co-integration of Pesaran et al. (2001) and a method developed by Bårdsen (1989) to derive long-run price and income elasticities of import demand for the period of 1985-2005, the findings show the existence of a co-integration relationship between imports, relative prices and domestic income. Total imports have a long-run price demand elasticity of -1.61, indicating that relative prices have a strong effect on their demand and thus signifying that the demand for imports is strongly affected by domestic inflationary pressures. Moreover, the long-run domestic income demand elasticity is +1.24, demonstrating that imports are strongly affected by domestic economic activity. This latter result is shown to have important implications for sustainable economic growth in the Dominican Republic, particularly in the light of its recent membership in the Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA).
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Short Term Relationships between European Electricity Markets
Rafik Jbir, Lanouar Charfeddine
This paper investigates the short term relationship between the three major European electricity markets: France, Germany and Italy. Using a multivariate analysis, we study the impact of each electricity price changes in one country on the electricity price of the others two countries. Empirical results show that there is a positive impact of common reforms in Europe. Indeed, there is an interdependence of electricity prices especially between Germany and Italy.
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Foreign Direct Investment and the Nigerian Financial Sector Growth
Oke, Micheal Ojo
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) stimulates financial sector growth through the presence of foreign participation in investment in the nation. This paper explores the relationship between foreign direct investment and financial sector growth, providing empirical evidence from Nigeria. Annual time-series data were gathered on foreign direct investment, market capitalization, Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, Inflation rate, Exchange Rate and Degree of openness (ratio of imports and exports to gross domestic product) from 1981-2010. The empirical model was analyzed using the econometric techniques of ordinary least square method, unit root test, co-integration test, Error correction Mechanism, and Granger causality test. The findings suggest that the inflow of FDI has a positive impact on the Financial Sector in the short run but fail to translate to real long financial sector growth that could promote speedy economic growth due to the fact that the bulk of foreign direct investment has been channeled to other sectors of the economy namely the Oil and Gas Sector. The study recommends that government should encourage and formulate policies that will increase the volume and magnitude of Foreign Direct Investment into the Financial Sector as well as implement policies that attract foreign participation in domestic economy and create good and conducive investment climate that assures that foreign businesses thrive, among others.
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