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Asian Economic and Financial Review
Publish by: Production and Hosting by Pak Publishing Group on behalf of Asian Economic and Social Socie
Online ISSN: 2222-6737
Print ISSN: 2305-2147
Print ISSN: 2305-2147
The Determinants of Stock Prices in Pakistan
Mehr-un-Nisa, Mohammad Nishat
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- Hussain, F. and Mahmood, T. (1999) “Monetary Expansion and Stock Returns in Pakistan” The Pakistan Development Review Vol, 38, pp. 769-776.
- Hussain, F. and Mahmood, T. (2001) "The Stock Market and the Economy in Pakistan” The Pakistan Development Review Vol 40, 107–114.
- Hussain, F. and Qayyum, A. (2006) Stock market liberalizations in the South Asian Region: PIDE working paper.
- Ibrahim, M. H. (1999) “Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices in Malaysia: An Empirical Analysis” Asian Economic Journal Vol 13, pp. 219- 231.
- Index Number of Stock Exchange Securities (1995-2006), State Bank of Pakistan.
- International Financial Statistics (IFS), (1995-2006).
- Irfan, M. and Nishat, M. (2002) "Key Fundamental Factors and Long-Run Price Changes in an Emerging Market: A Case Study of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)” The Pakistan Development Review Vol 41, pp. 517-533.
- Kraft, J. and Kraft, A. (1977) “Common stock prices: Some Observations” Southern Journal of Economics Vol 43, pp. 1365-1367.
- Kraft, J. and Kraft, A. (1977) “Determinants of common stock prices: A Time Series Analysis” The Journal of Finance Vol 32, pp. 417-425.
- Kumar, S. and Mohan, M. (1975) “Determinants of share prices in India” Indian Economic Journal, Vol 23, pp. 23-27.
- Lee, B.S. (1998) “Permanent, Temporary and Non-Fundamental Components of Stock Prices” The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol 33, pp. 1-32.
- Ministry of Finance, Economic Survey of Pakistan, (1995-2006), Govt. of Pakistan.
- Mukherjee, T. K. And Naka, A. (1995) “ Dynamic relations between macroeconomic variables and the Japanese stock market: An Application of vector error correction model” The Journal of Financial Research Vol 2, pp. 223-237.
- Mukherjee, R. (1988) “The Stock Market and the Economy: The Indian Experience 1949-81” Indian Economic Journal Vol 36, pp. 30-43.
- Nishat, M. (1992) “Share prices, dividend and retained earnings behavior in Pakistan stock Market” The Indian Economic Journal Vol 40, No. 2.
- Nishat, M. (1995) “Determinants of stock prices in Pakistan” International journal of Development Banking Vol 13, No.2, pp. 37-42.
- Nishat, M. and Saghir, M. (1991) “The stock market and Pakistan economy” Savings and Development, Vol 15, pp. 131–145.
- Nishat, M. and Shaheen, R. (2004) “Macroeconomic factors and the Pakistani equity market” Pakistan development Review Vol 43, pp. 619-637.
- Oyama, T. (1997) “Determinants of stock prices: The case of Zimbabwe” (IMF working paper).
- Ralph, I.U. and Eriki, P.O. (2001) “Inflation and Stock Price Behavior: Evidence from Nigerian Stock Market”Journal of Financial Management & Analysis Vol 14, pp. 1-10.
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- State Bank of Pakistan, Balance Sheet Analysis of Joint Stock Companies (1995-2006).
- State Bank of Pakistan, Banking Statistics of Pakistan, (1995-2006).
- Zhao, Xing-Qiu (1999) “Stock prices, inflation and output: evidence from China” Applied Economics Letters Vol 6, pp. 509-511.
Insurance Market Activity and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria
Philip Chimobi Omoke
The focus of this study is to empirically assess insurance market activities in Nigeria with the view to determining its impact on economic growth. The period of study was 1970- 2008, the study made use of insurance density measures (premium per capita) as a measure for insurance market activity and real GDP for economic growth. It also employed control variables such as inflation and savings rate as other determinants of growth. The Johansen cointegration and vector error correction approach was used to estimate the relationship between the variables. All the variables used were stationary at first difference and the result showed a long term relationship existing among the variables. The hallmark finding of this study is that the insurance sector did not reveal any positively and significant affect on economic growth in Nigeria within the period of study. The result shows a low insurance market activity in Nigeria and that Nigerians have not fully embrace the insurance industry despite its importance to the growth of the economy.
- Allen, F. A. (1998) "The Theory of Financial Intermediation" Journal of Economic Surveys, pp.1461-1485.
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- Brainard, L. (2006) What is the Role of Insurance in Economic Development. Zurich.
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Vulnerability of Southern Mediterranean Countries to Exogenous Shocks: Structural VAR Approach
Sarra BEN SLIMANE, Moez BEN TAHAR, Zied ZSSID
- Agénor, P.R, McDermott, C.J and Prasad, E. (1999). “Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts” World Bank Economic Review, No. 14, pp. 251- 285.
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The Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan
Tariq Mahmood, Maqbool Hussain Sial
In this study the role of monetary and fiscal policies in economic growth of Pakistan is studied using time series data for the period 1973-2008. The objective of this study is to discover the ways by which fiscal and monetary policies can be established to boost economic growth, highlight present Pakistan fiscal and monetary challenges to discover regions which may yield upgrading to the fiscal and monetary framework and consequently increase employment opportunities and the budget revenues in Pakistan. The augmented Dickey Fuller unit root procedure is used to check the time series properties. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model technique is used to find the long-run relationship between fiscal /monetary policy and economic growth. The results show that monetary and fiscal policies both play a significant role in the economic growth of Pakistan. The relationship between GDP and Government Current Expenditure (GCE) is found to be negative while, Currency in Circulation (CIR) and Government Development Expenditure (GDE) affect GDP positively in case of Pakistan.
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Tax Structure and Economic Growth in Cote dIvoire: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others?
This paper examines the relationships between taxation and output in Côte d’Ivoire during the period 1960-2006. The bounds testing approach to cointegration devised by Pesaran et al. (2001) showed that tax variables, except direct tax, and real GDP are cointegrated and positively related in the long-run. The results of Granger causality tests indicated bidirectional causality between tax revenues and output in the long-run, implying a virtuous circle of tax and GDP. Direct taxes, however, did not cause GDP both in the short and long-run. These findings suggest that i) the tax revenues and, therefore, budget deficit, depend upon the economic activity, and ii) switching the tax burden from direct to indirect taxes is likely to have a positive effect on the economic output.
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An ARDL Analysis Of The Exchange Rates Principal Determinants: ASEAN-5 Aligned with The Yen
Abdalrahman AbuDalu, Elsadig Musa Ahmed
This study examines an empirical analysis of long-run and short-run forcing variables of purchasing power parity (PPP) for ASEAN-5 currencies: Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah, the Philippines Peso, Thailand Bath, and Singapore Dollar, against the Japanese Yen, i.e., their real exchange rate (RER). This study uses a recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration (Pesaran et al., 2001) over the period 1991:Q1 – 2006:Q2. Our empirical results point out that the domestic money supply (M1) is the significant long run forcing variable of PPP for ASEAN-5 RER’s for the study periods. However, in the short- run the impact of variables have different impact during the sub-periods and full period for ASEAN-5 countries, the results suggest that the domestic money supply (M1) for Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines ,and Singapore respectively, , have the highest significant short run forcing variable of PPP for countries RER’s. However, foreign interest rates followed by domestic money supply are the short-run forcing variables for Thailand’s RER. This may be due to the peculiarity of Thailand government’s management of the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC).
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The Arabo-Mediterranean momentum strategies
This paper documents strong evidence for the robust profitability of the momentum strategies inter and intra five Arabo-Mediterranean stocks’ markets. Between 1998 and 2007 we find that the related stocks’ returns exhibit a strong continuation pattern during a period of about one year. Even after controlling for the country effect, the neutral-country momentum strategies still yield significantly positive payoffs of about 1.88 percent per month. Nevertheless and although the paper gives evidences that the market and the SMB factors account for the profitability of neutral-country momentum strategies’ payoffs, still some significant parts of the excess returns persist puzzling to the conventional asset pricing models.
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